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The Coming Even Worse Shortage of Good Web People
by Bruce Morris

Perpend

I see a definite shortage of good-quality Web development employees coming up. Yeah, I know a shortage already exists – I’m talking about a big shortage. The corporate world finally "gets" the Web and has big plans to set up big Web teams or outsource Web projects to interactive development companies – which are also involved in massive recruiting efforts.
October 1998

As part of my job doing business development for one of the international Internet development companies, I get around to a bunch of different Web shops and visit companies to talk about their Web plans and projects. Over the last couple of weeks I’ve been struck by how many of these places have told me about Web recruitment plans for 10, 20, or even - I kid you not – 50 Web developers. And these aren’t just empire building dreams. These outfits have the head count and associated budgets signed off and are looking right now to hire these people. Where the Hell are they all going to come from?

I work mostly in Europe these days but I know from talking to associates around the world that this is going on everywhere. I’ve spent the last couple of weeks making a bunch of client calls in London and, just for fun, I started keeping track of how many people these companies said they were trying to recruit. Here’s what the notes I took tell me:

Company Type Current Web Employees Want to Hire
Large TV broadcaster 20 35
Technical Web shop 50 50
Creative Web shop 25 15
Airline 20 45
Web shop 25 15
Travel company 7 15
Travel company 5 12
Ad agency 15 20
Ad agency 1 30
Ad agency 4 15
Book chain 2 40
Music chain 1 15
Computer manufacturer 3 12
Computer retailer 7 10

I could go on like this for a page or so and this is just in London. I have also spoken to a bunch of companies that plan on outsourcing to development companies or ad agencies for their Internet projects. Virtually all Web shops claim to be in intense hiring mode. I’ve seen shops so keen on hiring that they get overloaded and collapse. Who picks up these displaced developers? Other Web shops buy the whole load – developers, clients, desks, hardware, bad work habits – everything but the bad debts.

Sure there’s a fair amount of churn – developers moving from shop to shop for a slightly better deal. But that doesn’t happen as often as you might think. My experience shows me most of these developers are young, love what they’re doing, like where they’re working and have little desire to move. But look out – there are only so many new Web heads coming into the job market and all these places want the best, most experienced ones they can get.

Universities are beginning to churn out fresh-faced Web developers and code-pounders and many new graduates are quite good. Still, it’s much better to hire people with a few years experience. Real-world work experience is simply worth much more. But you already knew that.

Another thing that strikes me weird is that these companies all think they are going to get people with experience – they don’t want more than a few of their recruits to be new to Web development. I see job descriptions that look like this:

Junior Internet Developer – 5 years minimum Internet experience, C++, HTML, XML, JAVA, Web, Internet security, ability to interact with upper management and clients, must be well versed in http, TCP/IP, Lotus Notes, NT, UNIX, eCommerce, iCommerce, PhotoShop, PageMaker and Quark. Salary $12,000 with excellent benefits. A great opportunity for the right person.
These people are serious. They carefully screen CVs sent in and interview ruthlessly rejecting almost everyone. Well, OK, maybe I exaggerate a bit but you know what I mean. These candidates don’t exist! If they do they are already working somewhere. There are people like this, but they aren’t walking around loose on the street.

So what’s going to happen? Head-hunters have the same problems anyone else trying to hire does – lack of qualified candidates. Recruitment firms have plenty of business to do but no product (qualified candidates). Poaching has only limited possibilities for success. Salaries should obviously rise but I don’t find too many people in positions to hire that can handle that idea yet. They still think they can get these people for peanuts because they’re kids. In the short-term, even more work is going to be heaped on already overloaded Web shops. Production processes are already chaotic and workable Web development production management software, if it even existed (it doesn’t), will not help much. Sales people will not be turning down any work either.

So what should we do? Bum.


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